[Salon] Iran War: Iran Rug Pulls Trump by Suspending Talks Over Ceasefire Violations, Escalating with Demands to End Attacks in Gaza and West Bank, Threat to Close Hormuz and Choke Bab El-Mandib; More on How Hormuz Traffic Will Stay Low Even if “Deal” Agreed." (Naked Capitalism, 6/2/26)

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/06/iran-war-iran-rug-pulls-trump-by-suspending-talks-over-ceasefire-violations-escalating-with-demands-to-end-attacks-in-gaza-and-west-bank-threat-to-close-hormuz-and-choke-bab-el-mandib-more-on-how.html

Iran War: Iran Rug Pulls Trump by Suspending Talks Over Ceasefire Violations, Escalating with Demands to End Attacks in Gaza and West Bank, Threat to Close Hormuz and Choke Bab El-Mandib; More on How Hormuz Traffic Will Stay Low Even if “Deal” Agreed

Yves Smith June 2, 2026

[Today’s Iran war update fired before finished. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]

Iran just threw a spanner in Trump’s plans to keep Mr. Market stupefied with happy utterances about negotiations that were going nowhere, a ruse Trump might have been able to keep going until July when the US hits its energy cliff and gas and diesel prices shoot up. It’s hard for Trump to appease investors with “Talks going well!” when no talks are happening. Oil prices jumped on the Iran statement.

Many Zionist opponents had been disappointed by an apparent Iran sellout of Hezbollah, which had supported Iran during the war by mounting attacks on Israel during this war. by taking no action when Israel kept flagrantly violating the ceasefire with its attacks on Southern Lebanon. One cannot know what complex calculations Iran has engaged in before it makes a move. Annoyance with Trump making clear the negotiations are an empty exercise via him just having toughened US demands looks to have been one factor. Another was the US intensifying its ceasefire violations in the Strait of Hormuz area via more frequent strikes.

But I will hazard a third idea: Iran is only now ready to engage Israel, as in even destroy it if Israel does not back down.

Recall that Iran had been attacked by surprise when the war started. Even though a considerable majority of its missiles, launchers, and deeply bunkered sites survived, it still suffered some depletion. In addition, it appears that the entrances of at least some missile sites were blocked by bombing rubble. These sites likely have multiple entrances but these actions could have impeded operation. Iran has reportedly been clearing out the debris.

Iran has also claimed to have greatly ramped up its pace of drone and missile production, and is believed to be getting equipment from Russia and China.

Iran has had even more time to study US and Israel operations and what they could do with the assets available to them.

At the margin, Iran also may want to force Trump to a crisis sooner rather than later for the sake of the world economy (Russia and China do care about that, after all).

On current trajectories, as we explained yesterday, Trump could conceivably stick to his current course until at least paper oil prices started to register the coming energy cliff, and/or important US companies made loud and panicked noises about their diesel supplies, therefore also spooking their vendors and the great unwashed public. Even so, Trump being Trump, he would try to stare that down by repeating his blather about the sacrifice being worth it and insisting oil prices would tank once Iran capitulated.

On top of that, the world economy is simply not going to recover from fight for control over the Strait of Hormuz any time soon. The mainstream press keeps happily talking past a critical point: vessel operators and crews are extremely leery of going anywhere near the Gulf. To the extent the media take notice, they depict the impediment as insurance, which is bogus. Insurance has been available for the duration of the war ex the very first week. It is safety risk. And with no one trusting the US to stick to a deal, and Iran not to be trigger-happy in the face of provocations, who can blame them?

We’ll turn to detail soon, but the next-high level point is that Trump allegedly blew up at Netanyahu and Netanyahu offered a fake concession. Not only did Trump look like a moron for repeating it but Israel immediately defied Trump by resuming strikes near the Lebanon village of Tyre. This affair likely further strengthened Netanyahu position in Israel by demonstrating that he can lead the US by the nose.

Bloomberg did not cover itself with glory in how it covered the news of the Iranian suspension of talk when it broke:

The Financial Times was more direct:

Admittedly, the English language version of the Tasnim story has “messages” in its headline, perhaps intended to make clear that it was a stretch to depict the communications as negotiations. From the story Iran to Halt Message Exchanges with US in Protest at Israeli Crimes:

Information obtained by Tasnim indicates that, in light of the continuation of the Zionist regime’s crimes in Lebanon, and considering that an end to the aggression on Lebanon was among the preconditions of the ceasefire, and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team will halt “talks and the exchange of texts through a mediator.”

The immediate cessation of the aggressive and savage operations of the Zionist regime’s army in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the necessity of the regime’s complete withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon, have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators. Until Iran’s and the Resistance’s demand on this matter is fulfilled, there will be no talks.

In addition, the Resistance Front and Iran have placed on their agenda the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the activation of other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with the aim of punishing the Zionists and their supporters.

Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi soon underscored that ceasefire means ceasefire:

This Aljazeera segment contains a statement from Iran’s deputy foreign minister

And Iran has upped the ante. From a later report on Tasnim, Iranian General Warns Settlers in Occupied Territories over Israeli Attacks on Lebanon:

Major General Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued his acts of aggression in the region by threatening to bomb Beirut and the Dahieh district and issuing evacuation warnings to residents there.

Referring to the Israeli regime’s repeated violations of the ceasefire, the Iranian commander warned that if the threat is carried out, residents of the northern parts of the occupied territories and military settlements should leave the area if they do not want to be harmed.

The commander said the warning comes in response to the Israeli regime’s continued ceasefire violations and its threats against Lebanon.

Tasnim has more “stern warning” stories based on official statements since that one. In chronological order:

IRGC Navy Targets US-Israeli-Owned Vessel in Retaliatory Strike

IRGC Quds Force Chief Warns of Bab el-Mandeb Disruption amid Israeli Attacks on Lebanon

Iran Says Breach of Ceasefire on One Front Constitutes Violation across All Fronts

Iran to Confront Israel If Attacks on Lebanon Continue, Qalibaf Warns

A recap from Hussein of the South:

An interesting timeline today.

Hezbollah inflicting huge losses on IOF in southern Lebanon and denying them an opportunity to establish fixed presence in invaded areas.

Israelis threaten Beirut if Resistance continues operations against northern settlements.

Hezbollah targets northern settlements.

Israelis say bombs incoming.

Iran suspends US talks, issues evacuation order for northern settlements. Warns strikes on the occupation entity will start if aggression escalates in Lebanon.

Trump runs to save face, says he talked with Netanyahu, claims he turned back Israeli occupation forces from going to Beirut (what.) and talks with Iran are advancing in “rapid” pace.

Israeli officials and journalists are calling Netanyahu a puppet, saying that they are occupied by the US, Ben Gvir adding that “it’s time to say no to the US.”

The Lebanese embassy in Washington: We made breakthrough in talks!

But the Trump-Netanyahu exchange was a clown show:

This should have been recognized as Netanyahu pwning Trump by making an empty promise and worse Trump being too clueless to see that. Israel was not sending ground forced to Beirut. It’s now implementing the Gaza solution on a widespread basis, of bombing with such ferocity as to destroy communities and as many of their inhabitants as possible.

Confirming this assessment:

Needless to say, the idea that Trump called not just one but multiple Leaders of Hezbollah is also ludicrous.

But someone had the bright idea of over-egging the pudding by leaking to the White Hous’s pet propagandist, Barak Ravid of Axios. From “You’re fucking crazy”: Trump fumes at Netanyahu in call on Lebanon:

Why it matters: Earlier on Monday, Iran threatened to abandon the negotiations with the U.S. over Israel’s actions in Lebanon. On the call, Trump called Netanyahu “crazy” and accused him of ingratitude, according to two of the sources. He also put the brakes on Israel’s plan to strike Beirut.

Behind the scenes: One U.S. official said Trump told Netanyahu that following through on his threats to bomb the Lebanese capital would further isolate Israel around the world.

Two of the sources said Trump claimed he’d helped keep Netanyahu out of jail — a reference to his support during Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
Summarizing Trump’s remarks to Netanyahu, the U.S. official said: “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
A second source briefed on the call said Trump was “pissed” and at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the fuck are you doing?…”

State of play: Israel no longer plans to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut, an Israeli official told Axios.

It would be reasonable to treat this report of another lovers’ spat between Trump and Netanyahu with skepticism:

But the Times of Israel picked this story up as Trump said to tell Netanyahu ‘you’re f**king crazy’ while demanding Lebanon truce: ‘I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel.’

And there is backlash in Israel against the appearance of Netanyahu giving way to Trump, even if this was just a short-term measure. From the Financial Times in Benjamin Netanyahu faces backlash after Donald Trump call:

Netanyahu’s climbdown — which came amid mounting frustration in Israel at the failure to defang Hizbollah, with polls suggesting most Israelis favour more aggressive action against the militant group — drew criticism from across the political spectrum.

Naftali Bennett, the right-wing former prime minister widely regarded as one of Netanyahu’s main rivals in Israel’s looming election, accused him of “losing control over Israeli sovereignty”.

Yair Lapid, head of the biggest opposition party Yesh Atid, assailed Netanyahu for presiding over a “vassal state”, while Gadi Eisenkot, head of the centrist Yashar party, wrote on X: “There has never been a prime minister in Israel who accepted such a humiliating demand.”

There was also criticism from within the ranks of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, with national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir urging him to ignore Trump’s demands and ratchet up the campaign against Hizbollah.

“You said that a strong prime minister tells the President of the United States — ‘yes’ when possible, and ‘no’ — when necessary. This is the time to tell our friend, President Trump — ‘no’,” Ben-Gvir wrote on X.

However, Mr. Market did take some cheer from the apparent Israel retreat, with oil prices dropping by 1.4%.

And Trump is still losing his mind:

Trita Parsi and Mario Nawfal discussed what Iran moves means for a resolution of the conflict:

A key point from Parsi, via a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:

Are the Iranians at this point serious about making sure that that pressure leads to a result and if it does the Iranians will sign on to an agreement?

Or has Israel and Lebanon become a pretext at least for some of them to just get out of these negotiations altogether because they have such deep suspicions as to whether a deal with Trump will work in the end at al? And as a result, if Lebanon ends up becoming the triggering factor that that uh collapses the talks, they would be not necessarily pushing for it or actively seeking it, but if it happens, that’s a perfect exit for them. And then it’s not their decision. It’s it’s not anything of that kind, but it’s something that is mainly due to the US’s inability to hold the Israelis back…

If the US refuses to have a full regionwide ceasefire, I think the Iranians will likely not agree to a deal at all because to them it will be and this will confirm their suspicions that an agreement is just a way for the US and Israel to buy time to attack Iran again. and as a result it’s not worth it for them to sign on to the agreement.

Another elephant-in-the-room issue is that the popular and business press on an almost universal basis act as if a negotiated end to the war would mean a fairly swift return to close to the old normal level of Strait of Hormuz traffic. This is simply not in the cards. The world will suffer from a much lower level of transits through the Strait of Hormuz for a very long time even in a best case scenario. From gCaptain in